The economic growth estimation for 2010 and projection for 2011-2013

Phnom Penh, Cambodia: The following is an overview of the economic growth estimation for year 2010 and projection for 2011-2013.

The economic estimation for year 2010 is based on economic performance and trend of the year 2009. Major principals used in the projection for economic performance in 2011-2013 is based on production function in real economic sector, effective tax rate in the fiscal policy and money velocity in the monetary policy.

According to primary estimation of National Institute of Statistics of the Ministry of Planning, it illustrates that real economic growth rate will be 0.1% at constant price and its deflation index will be 2.6% in 2009. The growth supported by good performance in agriculture and service sectors at especially the garment sector which dropped by -9.0%. In the year 2010, the Economic and Public Finance Policy Department (EPFPD) of the Ministry of Economy and Finance estimated that the real economic growth rate will approximately flourish by 5% at constant price and its deflation index will be 4.8%. The real economic growth rate will, in the period of 2011-2013, increasingly average by 6.3% per annum and its deflation index will be 2.7% by projection. The estimated and projected results are based on the significant economic data trend as bellows:

A.      Economy by sectors includes agriculture sector, industry sector, and service sector.

B.      Investment

C.      Inflation and Exchange rate

D.      Budget Implementation

E.       Currency situation

F.       Foreign Trade

Real GDP Growth and Projection 2004-2013 (% change)

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Source : Ministry of Economy and Finance